Seed progress on the empty projects list

🎯 Hypothesis

• If we treat the empty projects list as a started job instead of an apology
• By filling the first 30% of a setup bar, giving a one-click sample project, and naming the next prompt
• Will more new teams create or open a project in the first session
• Because Endowed Progress makes the remaining work look smaller, Fogg Behavior Model raises ability and supplies a prompt, and Reciprocity gives a useful sample before asking for effort

🔬 Research

Psychology / behavioural economics

• People accelerate when they feel they have already moved; endowed progress is why a bar that starts at 30% outperforms a bar at 0%. - source
• Behaviour needs motivation, ability, and a prompt at the same moment (Fogg Behavior Model). An empty list with "Create a project" is a prompt with high friction and no proof of progress. - source

Case studies

• Empty states convert when they show the finished shape of the product and one next action, not a blank apology. - source
• Making the first step easy (EAST) is the usual fix when a new account lands on a list with nothing in it. - source

🖼️ Control

The existing UI for the empty projects list after signup.

✨ Treatment

Starts a setup bar at 30%, offers a sample project as the primary action, and keeps "Blank project" as a quiet second option.

<section class="empty">
  <header>
    <h1>Projects</h1>
    <p>Setup <progress value="30" max="100">30%</progress></p>
  </header>
  <p>Your workspace is ready. Open a sample project to see how a live file looks.</p>
  <button type="button">Open sample project</button>
  <button type="button" class="quiet">Blank project</button>
</section>

.empty { max-width: 28rem; padding: 1.5rem; font: 16px/1.45 system-ui, sans-serif; }
.empty header { display: flex; justify-content: space-between; align-items: center; gap: 1rem; }
.empty h1 { margin: 0; font-size: 1.25rem; }
.empty progress { width: 7rem; }
.empty p { margin: 1rem 0; color: #444; }
.empty button { display: block; width: 100%; height: 2.6rem; margin: 0 0 0.5rem; border: 0; border-radius: 8px; background: #111; color: #fff; font-weight: 600; }
.empty button.quiet { background: transparent; color: #333; font-weight: 500; }

📊 Metrics

Primary metric

The deciding metric.

• First-session activation (%) — share of new teams that open or create a project within 24 hours of signup

Measurement metrics

Help explain the result.

• Sample project opens (%) — share of empty-state viewers who open the sample
• Blank project creates (%) — share of empty-state viewers who start from blank

Guardrail metrics

Must not regress during the experiment.

• Day-7 retained teams (%) — share of activated teams that return within 7 days
• Sample-to-own project (%) — share of sample openers who later create their own project

📈 Results

✅ Conclusion

Variant shipped to all users? Control / treatment